The CPA’s Autumn Forecasts show that the construction industry will grow 23% by the end of 2018 and contribute £12 billion to the UK economy over the next two years alone.
Dr Noble Francis, economics director of the Association, commented: “Our Forecasts reflect a welcome, recurring theme as growth continues and begins to broaden. Short-term activity is still led by private housing, infrastructure and commercial, and areas of public sector construction are showing the first signs of increasing strength. We believe the expansion will continue through 2018.
“Recovery is not a foregone conclusion however, and several important risks remain, primarily around the strength of the UK and Eurozone economies, the policy outcomes following the 2015 General Election and the impact of any supply constraints such as the scarcity of labour and materials.”
Other highlights include:
- Construction output will grow 4.8% in 2014 and 5.3% in 2015;
- Private housing starts are expected to grow 18.0% in 2014 and 10.0% in 2015;
- The private commercial sector is set to increase 3.7% in 2014 and 6.1% in 2015;
- Energy infrastructure is anticipated to grow 118.2% by 2018.
Dr Francis continued: “Infrastructure output is forecast to rise by 8.2% per year, on average, over the next four years. Roads construction is forecast to increase by 10% in 2014 and a further 5% in 2015 due to growth in the Highways Agency’s capital funding.”
He concluded: “The Association’s central forecast estimates that construction output will rise 4.8% in 2014, a marginal change from the previous 4.7% estimate. Output is forecast to rise a further 5.3% in 2015, an upward revision from 4.8% growth in the Association’s Summer Forecast due to the continued strength of the UK economy.”