Independent analysis commissioned by the strategic road monitor recommended a road safety target for National Highways' third road investment strategy (RIS 3) of more than double the KSI reduction levels eventually set by the Government and more than treble what the national operator itself asked for, Highways can reveal.
Based on figures from a report commissioned by the Office of Rail and Road (ORR), a negotiation appears to have taken place between National Highways and the Department for Transport (DfT).
The independent recommendation from the ORR-commissioned report pushed for a target of much greater reductions in the number of people killed and seriously injured (KSI), while the national operator itself pushed for a much lower target. The DfT landed somewhere between the two.
National Highways apparently requested a target of 85 fewer KSIs by 2031 compared to 2025 (equivalent to roughly 3% of the 2005-09 baseline) but received a target equivalent to 144 fewer KSIs (equivalent to roughly 4.6% of 2005-2009 baseline), or a 7.5% reduction in the number of KSIs based on the 2022-24 baseline by the end of 2031, which is how it is described in the final RIS 3 document.
However, the independent report commissioned by the ORR suggested a target of 310 fewer KSIs (equivalent to roughly 10% of 2005-2009 baseline) would be appropriate - more than twice the level of reduction the Government has tasked National Highways with delivering.
An ORR spokesperson highlighted that its independent consultant was using the latest casualty data at the time (2024) of writing the report, which would suggest 10% of 3,100.
Industry sources have described the National Highways road safety target for 2026-2031 as 'unambitious', especially as the 7.5% figure pales in comparison to the national targets set out in the DfT's road safety strategy published in January. The national strategy demands a 65% reduction in KSIs in Great Britain by 2035, using a 2022-2024 baseline, and a 70% reduction in the number of child (under 16) KSIs on roads.
However, others in the sector have suggested the target may reflect the challenges the national operator faces when making further safety improvements on what is already the safest part of the network.
Steve Gooding, director of the RAC Foundation and former director general at the DfT, told Highways: 'The Government's Road Safety Strategy has set the level of ambition for reducing road casualties very high and at first glance the RIS 3 target for National Highways might look out of kilter, but against that it is important to recognise that many of the initiatives in the Strategy will take time to put in place, hence their impact will probably not be felt until National Highways is in RIS 4 or beyond.
'The mindset we need from National Highways is that this target is not something we would be happy for them to achieve by the skin of their teeth, but one we would celebrate them exceeding by quite some margin.'
A DfT spokesperson said: 'Our strategy sets stretching targets using what we've learned from earlier Road Investment Strategies to make sure targets are ambitious but realistic.'
The department added that the target is in line with the reduction trajectory achieved by National Highways over RIS1 and RIS2 - suggesting a more modest target was set for National Highways following its failure to meet safety targets in the previous two roads periods.
