Almost one in five (18%) schemes from the Government's major projects portfolio (GMPP) last year have been rated red for 'unachievable' - representing £244bn from the programme's total whole life cost of £924.2bn.

None of the Department for Transport's (DfT) highways projects were rated red; however, the £10bn Lower Thames Crossing and the £1.5bn A66 Northern Trans-Pennine scheme did slip into amber.

The National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA) analysis found that, at the end of March 2026, 29 projects (15% of the GMPP) were rated green for likely to be delivered; 109 projects (58%) were rated amber; and 34 projects (18%) were rated red; with 17 projects (9%) exempt from any rating.

A red rating is defined as: 'Successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable. There are major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable.'

The analysis by NISTA details delivery confidence across the Government's most significant projects, prior to a reset of the GMPP in April this year, which created a more streamlined list of 81 of the most nationally significant projects

The 2025-26 portfolio comprised 189 projects with a combined whole-life cost of £924.2bn, which is estimated to provide £603.6bn of monetised benefits over the lifetime of each project.

NISTA said last year's red-rated projects were 'receiving deeper, more targeted support to help projects get back on track'.

Major road schemes

The Departmental commentary on the delivery confidence assessment rating (DCA) of the Lower Thames Crossing states that 'whilst we recognise that there are still risks to delivery ', the senior responsible owner (SRO), a role moved from National Highways to the DfT itself last year, 'is content that sufficient mitigations were in place as of March-26 and therefore rated the DCA as Green'.

The SRO's green rating was 'primarily' due to £1.66bn additional public funding in the Third Road Investment Strategy for the years 2026/27 and 2028/29, which includes the £891m announced at Autumn Budget 2025 and funding previously committed for those years.

The Government also said the chosen Regulated Asset Base (RAB) financial model for the project was helping boost 'confidence in delivery' and that 'steps are being taken to prepare for a transaction with the private sector'.

An updated Outline Business Case was approved by the DfT Investment Committee in October 2025 - marking the transition from full public sector funding to a future private sector RAB model, with the private sector to deliver the remainder of the scheme and take on Dartford Crossing operations in 2028.

An update on the A66 schedule narrative is 'intended for future publication'.

Of the DfT projects receiving a red rating, all four of them related to rail, including HS2 Phase 1.

'Strong foundations'?

Despite the issues flagged by the report, NISTA asserted 'Government major projects demonstrate strong foundations for delivery' in its press statement.

Chief executive Becky Wood said: 'Delivering some of the Government's most ambitious and complex programmes is never easy, so it is expected that projects will face different challenges and perform differently at various stages of delivery. These assessments should not be seen as a definitive judgement on whether a project will ultimately succeed or fail. Instead, they provide an early warning, helping us identify risks sooner, understand where pressures are emerging, and work with departments to address issues before they become more serious.'

Lucy Rigby MP, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: 'This Government is building a stronger culture of delivery - raising standards, strengthening capability, and using the power of digital and AI to secure the infrastructure and public services the UK deserves.

'Major projects were for too long associated with spiralling costs, endless complexity and delays. Through our 10 Year Infrastructure Strategy published last year, this Government committed to changing that. When projects come up against delivery risks the onus is on Government to act swiftly and decisively to keep things on track.'