The climate impact from traffic using the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC) will be 80% lower if the Government’s ambitions for electric vehicles are realised, National Highways has said.
As previously revealed on Highways, the government-owned company is claiming an 80% cut in predicted emissions from traffic, based on comparing a calculation dating back to 2016 against a new forecast that assumes that last year’s transport decarbonisation plan will meet its targets.
The claim of an 80% cut in traffic emissions is based on comparing the 2016 estimate of 5.98 million tonnes of CO2 against a new projection of ‘less than a million tonnes’.
However, neither calculation uses the official Emissions Factor Toolkit (EFT), published by environment department DEFRA, which allows emissions to be forecast based on the expected types of vehicles in use during the operation phase of a new road scheme and which National Highways has said it uses for official carbon calculations.
In fact, the company has given an updated forecast of 4.6 million tonnes calculated using the latest version of the EFT (v11 with London Adjustment).
This represents an increase of 66% on a figure of 2.76 million tonnes in a 2020 National Highways appraisal summary table produced for its abortive application for development consent for the £8bn scheme.
Matt Palmer, executive director for the scheme implicitly admitted that it was relying on the success of policies that have not yet been put into legislation, which DEFRA has previously said is a necessary precursor to updating the EFT.
He said: ’Today’s announcement demonstrates that planned government policies would dramatically reduce carbon by accelerating the shift away from petrol and diesel vehicles.
‘The modelling released today shows that if those policies are successful, the cars and trucks that will use the Lower Thames Crossing will have lower or zero tailpipe emissions, removing pollution and supporting our country's movement to net zero.’
According to government figures more than a quarter of a million electric vehicles now travel on UK roads and sales of plug-in vehicles have reached all-time highs, with 327,000 registered last year alone – a 77% rise compared to 2020.
However, Laura Blake, chair of the Thames Crossing Action Group, which opposes the scheme, called the announcement ‘yet more greenwashing’.
She said: ‘The LTC Development Consent Order documentation of 2020 shows that traffic carbon emissions were estimated to be 2.74 million tonnes, and in their latest press release National Highways admit that the latest forecast is 4.6 million tonnes.
‘Far from a highly speculative 80% reduction in operational traffic emissions for the proposed LTC, there is actually evidence to show a whopping 67% increase in the estimated LTC operational traffic carbon emissions. Including construction and maintenance etc, this then results in a total of over seven million tonnes of carbon emissions for the proposed LTC if it goes ahead.’
